According to The Kobeissi Letter, US government spending has averaged approximately 9% of GDP over the past five years, surpassing Civil War levels and nearly matching the 2008 financial crisis peak (source: The Kobeissi Letter, June 3, 2025). This elevated spending persists despite a low unemployment rate of 4% and widespread expectations of a 'soft landing' in financial markets. For cryptocurrency traders, sustained high fiscal deficits may increase concerns about long-term US dollar stability and inflationary pressures, potentially driving increased demand for Bitcoin and other digital assets as alternative stores of value.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US Treasury reported a $258 billion budget surplus in April 2025, marking the largest monthly surplus since 2021. Total government receipts reached $850 billion, significantly outpacing outlays of $592 billion. The surplus was primarily driven by a 16% rise in individual tax payments, which totaled $460 billion (source: @KobeissiLetter, May 13, 2025). For crypto traders, this fiscal strength suggests short-term US dollar stability, historically correlating with cautious crypto price action as investors anticipate less urgency for rate cuts or liquidity injections. Traders should monitor potential shifts in risk appetite and capital flows, as robust US fiscal data may temporarily dampen bullish momentum in Bitcoin and major altcoins.